In the last hours before the Oscar ceremony, there are only two categories that people are really interested in. Who will win and who should win.
Naturally, I have my thoughts in what has turned out to be a very interesting year with unexpected nominations and one glaring snub that may, in a certain sense, have played in that movie's favor.
Who will win: ARGO
Who should win: ARGO
The glaring snub, of course, was leaving Ben Affleck's name off the nominated for Best Director list. But as the awards season kicked in, he seemed to win everything else he possibly could win: the Golden Globes, Producer's Guild, SAG, even the Director's Guild. LINCOLN seemed the movie to beat in the early going, now it is definitely ARGO.
Who will win: Steven Spielberg for LINCOLN
Who should win: Steven Spielberg for LINCOLN
Ben Affleck can't win, of course, since he wasn't nominated. And while LINCOLN is not quite "history written with lightning" (as President Woodrow Wilson famously said of D.W. Griffith's BIRTH OF A NATION), it is history as compelling, poignant drama with a towering performance by Daniel Day-Lewis as LINCOLN.
An upset here could be Ang Lee for the mesmerizing LIFE OF PI.
Who will win: Jennifer Lawrence for SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Who should win: Jennifer Lawrence for SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
I know, I know, I should be backing our hometown entry in this race, Sacramento's Jessica Chastain for her performance in ZERO DARK THIRTY, but Jennifer Lawrence's quirky, troubled, lonely and resourceful character in SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK was just unmatched.
A surprise here could be Emmanuelle Riva for AMOUR. At 85, she is the oldest Best Actress nominee ever (just as Quvenzhane Wallis at 9 for BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD is the youngest) and to top it off, Riva turns 86 on Oscar Night!
Who will win: Daniel Day-Lewis for LINCOLN
Who should win: Daniel Day-Lewis for LINCOLN
What can you say? He's simply the most accomplished actor of his generation.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who will win: Robert De Niro for SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Who should win: Robert De Niro for SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Here's where SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK will partially get its due. A lot of pundits, however, see this one going to Tommy Lee Jones for LINCOLN.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who will win: Anne Hathaway for LES MISERABLES
Who should win: Anne Hathaway for LES MISERABLES
Director Tom Hooper's decision to have the actors sing "live" during their scenes was criticized in some circles as taking away from the music (LES MIZ is, after all, a musical). However, it allowed them to make the songs more than just a musical comment on the action, but an integral part of some very dramatic performances, particularly the one by Anne Hathaway. I have to admit, I have never really been a big Anne Hathaway fan, but after LES MISERABLES, I've changed my tune.
Ready to steal her thunder, however, is Sally Field for LINCOLN.
So put your list together and join us Sunday night for the Oscar telecast where we can compare notes and see just how right (or wrong) we were!
by Jonathan Mumm firstname.lastname@example.org